Uncertainty is not Risk...

People tend to mix up the terms Risk and Uncertainty and use it interchangeably. They think that if there is uncertainty related to some task or some element of the project, then it is Risk. Some times yes and some times ‘No’ and it actually depdends.

Before getting into the details, let us define ‘Risk’ and ‘Uncertainty’.

"Risk is defined as what we stand to lose or gain, if certain events occur."

"Uncertainty refers to the lack of confidence that we express w.r.t events that we want to observe".

Risk is typically calculated using the formula “Risk = Probability of happening X Impact of the event” – when ‘the event’ happens. i.e. Risk is a function of Probability and Impact.

Expressing mathematically, Risk = f(probability, impact).

Probability has an element of Uncertainty Associated with it. Probability and hence uncertainty, is a factor in arriving at Risk.

This relation can be expressed mathematically as Risk = f[Probability(uncertainty), Impact]

People usually have this in mind when they mix up Uncertainty and Risk. But if we look into the equation above, we will see that it is not only the uncertainty, but also the impact, that determines whether a particular event that will happen in the future, qualifies to be a risk.

So while Risk definitely has an element of Uncertainty Associated with it, all Uncertainty translates into Risk, only based on the impact.

That is why it is not right to use Risk and Uncertainty Interchangebly.

Let me know what you think.

When ITS TIME for a Handover

In my post on handing over a process or any responsibility (can be read 'here'), I had listed the steps to hand over a process or any responsibility. My friend Usha (ushram@gmail.com), came up with a way to make it 'sticky*' by using the sentence ITS TIME and relating the message to each of the letters.

My thanks to her for the pain taken to make the message catchy. Now over to the message.

Identify a successor.
Train your successor.
Share work with your successor, while front-ending activities.

Tell all stakeholders.
Induct the person formally; let him/her manage Normal Scenarios while you remain in the background.
Move in to manage exceptions, if needed.
Exit when you are not needed to manage the exceptions.

Hope ITS TIME will make it easier to remember ‘what to do’, when its time to hand over any responsibility.

*Sticky: A term popularized by the book ‘Made to Stick’ by Heath brothers

"Whoever you are holding me now in hand"

Fighting to hold on to a certain standard in life is not easy. It comes with its own struggles, plagued by anxiety and self doubt. In my struggle to manage projects in a better manner, a way where good project management is a way of life, i have had my share of successes and failures.

But one thing is for sure. I have travelled too far in this path to drop everything and go back.

Over to Walt Whitman now from "Leaves of Grass".

Whoever you are holding me now in hand.
Without one thing all will be useless,
I give you fair warning before you attempt me further,
I am not what you supposed, but far different.
Who is he that would become my follower?
Who would sign himself a candidate for my affections?
The way is suspicious, the result is uncertain, perhaps destructive,
You would have to give up all else, I alone would expect to be your sole and exclusive standard.
Your novitiate would even then be long and exhausting,
The whole theory of your life and all conformity to the lives around you would have to be abandon'd,
Therefore release me now before troubling yourself any further, let go your hand from my shoulders,
Put me down and depart your own way.